I successfully put down the baby for her late morning nap half an a hour ago. After running quietly around in sock feet trying to do things while she was out cold, I sat down to answer email and messages. As I entered this post into WordPress, she awoke again.)
It’s not easy to respond quickly and at volume using one hand or thumb, though I’ve gotten much better at both over the past five months with a baby daughter.
Over that time, I’ve been struck by how good the voice recognition in iOS on my iPhone has become. I’ve been able to successfully dictate a rough draft of a long article into the email interface and respond to any number of inbound inquiries that way.
That said, neither the soft keyboard nor voice-to-text on the device are a substitute yet for the 15″ keyboard in my MacBook Pro when I want to write at length.
It’s mostly a matter of numbers: I can still type away at more than eighty words per minute on the full-size keyboard, far slower than I can produce accurate text through any method on my smartphone.
Capturing and sharing anything other than text on the powerful device, however, has become trivially easy, from images to video to audio recordings.
The process of “writing” has long since escaped the boundaries of tabulas, slate and papyrus, moving from pens and paper to explode onto typewriters, personal computers and tablets.
Today, I’m wondering how the bards of today will be able to reclaim the oldest form of storytelling — the spoken word — and apply it in a new context.
As we enter the next decade of rapidly improving gestural and tactile interfaces for connected mobile devices, I can’t help but wonder how long it the generations the preceded me will be able to leave decades of experience with keyboards behind and simply speak naturally to connected devices to share what thinking or seeing with family, friends and coworkers.
Economist Paul Krugman seemed to be thinking about something similar this morning, in a blog post on “techno-optimism”, when he commented on the differences between economic and technological stagnation:
…I know it doesn’t show in the productivity numbers yet, but anyone who tracks technology has a strong sense that something big has been happening the past few years, that seemingly intractable problems — like speech recognition, adequate translation, self-driving cars, etc. — are suddenly becoming tractable. Basically, smart machines are getting much better at interacting with the natural environment in all its complexity. And that suggests that
Skynet will soon kill us alla real transformative leap is somewhere over the horizon, maybe not this decade, but this generation.
Still, what do I know? But Brynjolfsson and McAfee have a new book — not yet out, but I have a manuscript — making this point with many examples and a lot of analysis.
There remain big questions about how the benefits of this technological surge, if it’s coming, will be distributed. But I think this kind of thing has to be taken into account when we try to imagine the future; I’m a great Gordon admirer, but his techniques necessarily involve extrapolating from the past, and aren’t well suited to picking up what could be a major inflection point.
That future feels much closer this morning.
[Image Credit: Navneet Alang, "Sci-Fi Fantasies, Real-Life Disappointments"]